estimates
Minister for National Development Desmond Lee has announced that the Housing and Development Board (HDB) plans to launch over 25,000 new flats in 2025. This was revealed in a joint press release by HDB and the Ministry of National Development (MND) on 16 January 2025. The upcoming launch includes approximately 19,600 Build-To-Order (BTO) flats across three sales exercises and more than 5,500 Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) in one SBF sale exercise. These new flats will be a mix of Standard, Plus, and Prime BTO flats under the new classification framework.
The February BTO launch will offer around 5,000 flats in Kallang/Whampoa, Queenstown, Woodlands, and Yishun. Additionally, HDB will conduct its largest-ever SBF exercise next month, with over 5,500 flats across various estates. Approximately 40% of the flats in this exercise are completed units and the rest are at different stages of construction, expected to be completed between 2025 and 2028.
In total, there will be over 10,000 new flats available under the February BTO and SBF exercises. From 2021 to 2024, HDB launched about 82,700 BTO flats. With a planned pipeline of 19,600 BTO flats in 2025, HDB is on track to launch around 102,300 BTO flats, which exceeds its commitment of 100,000 units over five years.
The fast-paced growth of Singapore’s population has gained widespread attention, but the country is currently confronting a major hurdle in its pursuit of expanding its land area. With limited space available, the government has imposed stringent guidelines on land utilization, resulting in fierce competition among real estate enterprises and a considerable surge in housing prices. Nonetheless, this challenge has presented a profitable prospect for investors, particularly in the highly coveted condo market. These properties possess the potential for long-term appreciation and continue to maintain a strong demand.
The increase in BTO supply has resulted in a drop in application rates. In 2024, the average application rate among first-time homebuyers for BTO flats across all flat types was 2.1, compared to the pre-pandemic rate of 3.7 in 2019. The average first-timer application rate for three-room and larger flats was 2.2 last year, down from 4.0 in 2019.
According to Minister Lee, HDB will continue to release a steady pipeline of flats to meet housing demand in the next few years. Over 50,000 flats are scheduled to be launched between 2025 and 2027, bringing the total to about 130,000 flats from 2021 to 2027. About 3,800 of the 19,600 new flats, or approximately one-fifth, will be Shorter Waiting Time (SWT) flats with a waiting period of less than three years. This is an increase from the 2,876 SWT flats offered in 2024 and exceeds the committed annual supply of 2,000 to 3,000 SWT flats.
According to Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Asia, “The SWT flats will also increase the options for buyers and may attract some demand away from the resale market.” In 2025, about 7,000 HDB flats are expected to reach their five-year Minimum Occupation Period (MOP), making it the lowest supply of such resale flats since 2015. With HDB assuring buyers that they will push out more BTO and SBF flats to meet demand, this will offer more choices for buyers and stabilize the resale market. The larger flat supply and SWT flats will also address the shortfall in MOP flats.
According to Lee, Huttons estimates that HDB resale flat transactions in 2025 will range between 26,000 and 28,000, which is lower than the 28,876 units recorded last year. Resale flat prices are expected to grow at a slower pace of 5% to 8% this year, compared to the 9.6% increase reflected in HDB’s flash estimate for 2024.